The Kremlin risks losing tax revenue.
Ivanna Kapustyanska, News Author
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Photo: SZR
The proportion of workers in Russia who are not part of the official staff of organizations reached 41% in January-May 2026. The gap between the total number of employed and officially registered workers is over 30 million people.
This is reported by the Security Service of Ukraine (SZR).
According to Russia’s Rosstat and the Unified Interdepartmental Statistical Information System, there were 74.6 million employed people in Russia in January-May 2026. At the same time, the official staff of organizations was only 44.1 million people.
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Thus, the difference is 30.5 million people, or about 41% of total employment.
One of the reasons for this trend is the high cost of official employment for Russian businesses.
According to SZR estimates, maintaining a full-time employee costs the employer at least 43% more than the accrued salary. In addition to personal income tax, employers pay insurance contributions to the social fund and accident insurance contributions.
On the other hand, cooperation with a self-employed individual does not involve the company paying insurance contributions, and the contractor themselves pays the tax on professional income.
This encourages Russian companies to switch employees to flexible employment arrangements, including registering them as self-employed or individual entrepreneurs.
This trend has become particularly noticeable in the taxi, delivery, marketplaces, and outsourcing sectors.
The transition to non-standard employment forms allows companies to reduce fixed costs, but at the same time shifts some of the social and financial risks to employees.
Such contractors may not have the guarantees traditional for full-time employees, including paid sick leave and vacations, and their pension contributions may differ from those received by officially employed staff.
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The largest gap between total and official employment, according to SZR, is observed in trade, construction, manufacturing, agriculture, and transport.
In 2023-2025, Russian businesses, amid a labor shortage, actively competed for workers and raised wages. However, in 2026, according to Ukrainian intelligence estimates, the situation is changing due to an economic slowdown, expensive credit, and weaker demand.
Companies are increasingly trying to optimize costs, including through flexible employment arrangements.
For the Russian budget, this means a potential reduction in tax and insurance revenues. At the same time, the Russian budget’s needs are growing due to the continuation of the war against Ukraine.
SZR notes that attempts by the Russian authorities to strengthen control over shadow employment may further increase the cost of official hiring and create new pressure on businesses.