What about the exchange rate? Oil at $98, escalation of the US-Iran conflict and threats to the dollarThe situation in the Middle East has once again become the main factor for global markets. The escalation of the war between the US and Iran, problems with vessel passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and rising oil prices could affect not only the cost of energy resources but also the exchange rates of major world currencies.This is discussed in a new video from our colleagues at the portal «Minfin».Financial expert Oleksiy Kozyrev presented a forecast for the currency and commodity markets for the period from August 20 to 26.
Oil may rise to $98 per barrel
According to the expert, the 60-day framework ceasefire agreement, which was in effect from June 17 to August 17, has ended, but there has been no progress on further agreements yet.«Both Iran and the United States accuse each other of not fulfilling their obligations,» Kozyrev noted.He stated that due to this, the prospects for normal passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz remain uncertain. The situation is already leading to increased logistics costs and heightening tension in financial and stock markets related to oil.Read also
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The price of Brent has already exceeded $91 per barrel.«$91 is not the limit for oil, that’s already clear,» the expert believes.According to his forecast, from August 20 to 26, the price of Brent crude will be in the range of $85 to $98 per barrel. Further dynamics will primarily depend on the developments in the Strait of Hormuz region.Kozyrev also warned that the high cost of energy resources could create additional problems for European countries.
What to expect from the euro-dollar pair
According to Kozyrev’s assessment, the behavior of the euro and the dollar in the coming days will be influenced by several factors: the situation in the Middle East, energy prices, the state of stock markets, as well as future decisions of the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve on interest rates and monetary policy.Currently, the euro is strengthening slightly against the dollar amid concerns about the intensifying crisis in the Middle East and uncertainty in financial markets.Read also
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«Whether they will raise their rates or not is a fundamental question for all investors,» the expert noted, referring to the upcoming decisions of the ECB and the Fed.According to Kozyrev’s forecast, the euro-dollar pair from August 20 to 26 will trade in the range of 1.151 to 1.169 dollars per euro.At the same time, daily fluctuations may range from 0.2 to 0.7 cents. For the Ukrainian currency market, this could potentially mean fluctuations in the euro exchange rate from 8 to 31 kopecks during the day.«This is not the most critical fluctuation; we have had fluctuations of 35 and 40 kopecks. But I cannot say that these are small fluctuations either,» Kozyrev concluded.Detailed forecast – in the video at the link:
Svitlana VyshkovskaEditorBased on materials from: Finance.ua# Currency Rate# Hryvnia Rate# Currency ForecastPlace for your advertisement