What will happen to the dollar and euro this week? An accurate forecast from a banker, exchange rate, and deposit calculationsIn this issue, we analyze the latest currency exchange rate forecast from Globus Bank banker Taras Lesovyi and the main factors affecting the Ukrainian financial market this week. Let’s start with the events influencing the currency exchange rate, and then move on to specific figures. It’s important to understand one thing: the dynamics of the euro this week depend not only on the situation in Ukraine. The relationship between the euro and the dollar on the global market plays a huge role.Read also
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Therefore, euro fluctuations may be somewhat wider than dollar fluctuations. However, according to the forecast, they should still not exceed the range we just mentioned.Even if the rate stays within the usual limits, it doesn’t mean there’s no risk, reassures Globus Bank banker Taras Lesovyi. Demand for currency on the interbank market may increase due to the activity of importers — especially those companies that purchase energy resources and fuel.Energy traders will try to accumulate currency in advance to finance future contracts. And the reason here is not panic, but cold calculation: instability in the global oil market, the situation around the Strait of Hormuz, the unpredictability of relations between the US and Iran.Read also
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The logic is simple. If political tension subsides, oil quotes may fall. But a new escalation can quickly bring the market back to growth. And since there is no clear long-term price guideline at the moment, Ukrainian importers are hedging — buying currency in advance, not waiting for a worse scenario.Another risk, which is talked about less but significantly affects the wallet, is domestic inflation. According to Taras Lesovyi, war-related damage increases business expenses: repairs, alternative electricity supply, transportation, restoration of production processes. And a significant portion of these expenses is forced to be included by businesses in the cost of goods and services.Fuel creates separate pressure. Its price increase raises logistics costs in almost all sectors. And if fuel prices continue to rise, some businesses may simultaneously increase their prices by 5-7% — not only to cover current expenses but also in advance, for possible future price increases.Under these conditions, inflation in August may be 1-1.3% per month. For comparison, in July, prices increased by approximately 0.2%. And on an annual basis, the indicator may accelerate to 8.8-9.2%.There is also a restraining factor — the seasonal supply of agricultural products. It will partially slow down the overall price increase. However, this factor will not be able to fully compensate for more expensive fuel, logistics, and business war-related losses.Now for the specific figures. During this week in August, the dollar exchange rate will most likely remain within UAH 44.6-45 per dollar, believes Globus Bank banker Taras Lesovyi.The euro exchange rate is in the range of UAH 51-52.5 per euro.More specifically by corridors: dollar on the interbank market — UAH 44.6-45.2, euro — UAH 51-52.5.On the cash market, the dollar is UAH 44.8-45.2, the euro — the same range, UAH 51-52.5.
Tetyana BerehovaCorrespondent-EditorBased on: Finance.ua# CurrencyPlace for your advertisement